Effects of demographic change on education

In some Dutch regions, the population is ageing and shrinking at an increasing pace. In due time, this development will spread over most other regions as well. An interdisciplinary group of civil servants has asked APE to explore the effects of these developments on education.

In the regions that will be most hard-hit by demographic change, student numbers are expected to fall up to 50% within one generation. APE has examined the effects of these decreasing student numbers on primary, secondary and vocational schools. As the public financing of these schools is primarily related to the number of students, the research has focused especially on the financial issues resulting from large shifts in school sizes. There is reason to believe that the current financing system is not completely fit to deal with these demographic developments. The system fails to take into account the fact that many costs cannot be adjusted immediately (cost remanence). For example, it is impossible for a school to adjust their housing situation on a yearly basis, so as to keep costs in line with student numbers (and benefits). In addition, teaching costs may rise as a result from a higher average age of teachers in ageing regions.

APE’s recommendations have been used as a basis for the Dutch National Action Plan on Demographic Change (Interbestuurlijk Actieplan Bevolkingsdaling).

(2009)